Epidemiology of autism: in search of biological and psychosocial determinants of growth

Objective. To analyse the causes of the increase in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in the Republic of Belarus.

Materials and methods. The data from full-text scientific articles in international academic databases, as well as data of official statistical reports of the Republic of Belarus 1-Psychiatry (Ministry of Health) "Report on mental disorders, behavioural disorders (excluding disorders related to the use of psychoactive substances) and the number of patients under observation", and data from the database of the Republican Information and Analytical System for Medical Assessment and Rehabilitation of Persons with Disabilities of the Republic of Belarus . Relative and incidence rates were calculated taking into account demographic data from the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus were used.

Results. The prevalence of ASD in the Republic of Belarus reached a rate of 1 in 251 children in 2025. The phenomenon of rising ASD rates is complex and multifaceted. The authors have identified three main groups of causes for the increase in this condition: biological factors, methodological factors, and factors relating to social adaptation.

Conclusion. The data obtained showed an almost sevenfold increase in the incidence and disability rates for ASD over the period of 2016–2025, whilst the total number of patients aged 0-17 with mental disorders registered by healthcare organisations remained relatively stable, indicating a specific epidemiological rise in ASD. This increase is driven by a combination of biological determinants (genetic factors, pregnancy complications, and the care of extremely preterm infants), as well as methodological and psychosocial factors that broaden diagnostic criteria and enhance the detection of ASD. Against this backdrop, a predominance of severe disability is observed in the Republic of Belarus. Furthermore, there is a predominance of males among children diagnosed with «childhood autism», and the development of a national early screening system and the application of a biopsychosocial model of care are evident, which create the conditions for timely detection, a reduction in the social burden, and an improvement in the quality of life for people with ASD and their families.

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