Mortality of the employable female population in the Republic of Belarus in 1990–2019 in the context of demographic aging

Objective. To determine and assess the impact of changes in the age structure on the level and dynamics of mortality among women of working age in the Republic of Belarus in 1990–2019.

Materials and methods. The study materials were data on the number and composition of living and deceased women of working age (hereinafter referred to as WWA) by five-year age groups in 1990–2019. To assess and analyze the studied indicators, linear and piecewise linear regression models of crude and standardized mortality rates by the method of direct standardization according to the age structure standard of WWA in 1990 were used. Based on the differences in the rates of annual mortality increase over the study period, expressed in %, a periodization of mortality dynamics in 1990–2019 of the studied population stratum was formed.

Results. A decrease in the number and aging of the female population of working age was established for the period 1990-2019, characterized by a decrease in the share of the younger (15-29 years) and an increase in the share of the middle (30-49 years) and older (50-64 years) age groups in the age structure. The change in the age structure factor did not affect the annual growth rate (hereinafter referred to as AGR) of WWA mortality in the periods of the mortality dynamics model, but led to an overestimation of mortality rates in 1990-1993 by up to 0.2‰. Since 2010, the overestimating effect on the WWA mortality rate has continued and by 2019 it amounted to 0.55‰, p<0.05.

Conclusion. The crude mortality rate of the female employable population, due to the ongoing transformation of its age structure, cannot serve as a target indicator in developing programs aimed at maintaining and strengthening the health of the employable population. When studying the level and dynamics of mortality of the age stratum of the female employable population, it is necessary to take into account the influence of the age structure factor on the indicators and dynamics of mortality.

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