zdorПроблемы здоровья и экологииHealth and Ecology Issues2220-09672708-6011Gomel State Medical University10.51523/2708-6011.2009-6-2-20zdor-830Research ArticleКЛИНИЧЕСКАЯ МЕДИЦИНАCLINICAL MEDICINEПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ВЕРОЯТНОСТИ ЛЕТАЛЬНОГО ИСХОДА У ВИЧ-ИНФИЦИРОВАННЫХ ПАЦИЕНТОВ НА ФОНЕ АНТИРЕТРОВИРУСНОЙ ТЕРАПИИTHE LETHAL OUTCOME PROBABILITY FORECASTING AT HIV-INFECTED PATIENTS IN VIEW OF ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPYКозорезЕ. И.KozorezE. I.noemail@neicon.ruЖаворонокС. В.ZhavoronokS. V.noemail@neicon.ruМицураВ. М.MitsuraV. M.noemail@neicon.ruКрасавцевЕ. Л.KrasavtsevE. L.noemail@neicon.ruГомельский государственный медицинский университетGomel State Medical UniversityБелорусская медицинская академия последипломного образованияByelorussian Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education20092806200902100105Copyright © Козорез Е.И., Жаворонок С.В., Мицура В.М., Красавцев Е.Л., 20092009Козорез Е.И., Жаворонок С.В., Мицура В.М., Красавцев Е.Л.Kozorez E.I., Zhavoronok S.V., Mitsura V.M., Krasavtsev E.L.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://journal.gsmu.by/jour/article/view/830

Определена вероятность летального исхода в течение 12 месяцев у 331 ВИЧ-инфицированного пациента, принимающего антиретровирусную терапию. С помощью регрессионной модели выбраны пять параметров, влияние которых на риск летального исхода доказано: пол, стадия заболевания, уровень CD4 клеток, уровень гемоглобина, наличие диагностированного туберкулеза. Согласно разработанной модели были определены вероятности смерти через 3, 6, 9 и 12 месяцев от начала антиретровирусной терапии.

The probability of a lethal outcome within 12 months in 331 HIV-infected of the patients accepting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is defined. With the help of regression model were chosen five parameters which influence on risk of a lethal outcome is proved: sex, disease stage, CD4 cells level, haemoglobin level, presence of the diagnosed tuberculosis. According to the developed model probabilities of death in 3, 6, 9 and 12 months from the beginning of ART have been defined.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.